Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.096058 0.107450 0.119273 0.132430 0.146629 0.161463 0.178101
2024-10-20 0.076189 0.092694 0.110855 0.132181 0.156400 0.182909 0.213980
2024-10-27 0.062492 0.082106 0.104845 0.132822 0.165968 0.203647 0.249362
2024-11-03 0.056911 0.079717 0.107315 0.142543 0.185668 0.236102 0.298869
2024-11-10 0.048349 0.072314 0.102591 0.142659 0.193267 0.254046 0.331478
2024-11-17 0.042395 0.067343 0.100112 0.144877 0.202959 0.274297 0.366964
2024-11-24 0.036835 0.062113 0.096597 0.145156 0.209762 0.290765 0.397856
2024-12-01 0.034834 0.061582 0.099168 0.153333 0.226769 0.320260 0.445466
2024-12-08 0.033103 0.061179 0.101732 0.161419 0.243727 0.349945 0.493819
2024-12-15 0.029528 0.057515 0.099255 0.162192 0.250663 0.366579 0.525575
2024-12-22 0.025352 0.052383 0.094154 0.158812 0.251580 0.375087 0.546735
2024-12-29 0.023954 0.051646 0.095533 0.164721 0.265398 0.400905 0.590910
2025-01-05 0.021898 0.049730 0.095198 0.168454 0.276824 0.424541 0.633793
2025-01-12 0.019808 0.047531 0.094283 0.171303 0.287163 0.447104 0.675987
2025-01-19 0.017800 0.045220 0.092983 0.173446 0.296502 0.468495 0.717065
2025-01-26 0.017801 0.046764 0.098171 0.185885 0.321291 0.511865 0.788810
2025-02-02 0.015791 0.044041 0.095873 0.186293 0.328135 0.530155 0.826484
2025-02-09 0.014372 0.042324 0.095147 0.189109 0.338578 0.553642 0.871630
2025-02-16 0.012769 0.039960 0.093050 0.189498 0.345226 0.571736 0.909474
2025-02-23 0.012564 0.040699 0.096643 0.199465 0.366843 0.611732 0.978535
2025-03-02 0.012345 0.041367 0.100107 0.209285 0.388400 0.651935 1.048368
2025-03-09 0.011117 0.039437 0.098470 0.210226 0.395912 0.671595 1.089186
2025-03-16 0.009489 0.036228 0.094080 0.206131 0.395228 0.679088 1.112686